India Readies to Face 2040 Naval Threat, as Pak-China-Turkey Axis Emerges

India faces an emerging maritime challenge from a coordinated China-Turkiye-Pakistan naval build-up by 2040.

- ABHINANDAN MISHRA

India is now less than 15 years away from encountering what defence planners increasingly recognise as the most formidable maritime challenge in its history—a coordinated naval build-up by China, Turkiye, and Pakistan.

While the three nations are not part of any formal alliance as of now, their hidden coordination—on display during Operation Sindoor—and converging maritime postures suggest the emergence of a strategic triangle. If left unchecked, this triad could outmatch India's projected naval capabilities by 2040.

Notably, the Indian military, under clear instructions from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, undertook Operation Sindoor without any military assistance, acting alone across multiple domains—land, air, cyber, and naval—even as allies and friends limited themselves to lip service. In stark contrast, Pakistan received covert support during and after the operation from China and Turkiye.

This asymmetry in external support sets a clear precedent—one that underscores the possibility that India may again have to act alone in a future multi-theatre maritime conflict, even as adversaries draw upon shared platforms, logistics, and real-time intelligence.

China, already the world's largest navy in terms of total ship count according to official assessments, is on track to operate by 2040 no fewer than six aircraft carriers—including nuclear-powered carriers—alongside 12 nuclear-powered attack submarines, over 60 conventional and air-independent propulsion (AIP) submarines, and a surface fleet of more than 150 warships.

Significantly, its overseas basing infrastructure in Djibouti is now fully operational, and its access to Pakistan's Gwadar Port, integrated with the Chinese BeiDou satellite navigation system, offers dual-use capabilities for both commercial and military objectives—something that has not escaped relevant eyes.