India has a Myanmar dilemma: How to navigate the crossroads of conflict and crisis

While India considers Myanmar as a crucial part of India's Neighbourhood First, Act East as well as Indo-Pacific policies, it is an immediate national security, economic imperative

- CCHAVI VASISHT

On the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in China's Tianjin city, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Myanmar's junta chief, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing. During the interaction, PM Modi emphasised that "Myanmar is a vital pillar of India's Act East and Neighbourhood First Policies and there is immense scope to boost ties in areas like trade, connectivity, energy, rare earth mining and security".

Myanmar had been under the state of emergency since 2021 when the military took over, overthrowing the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. Last month, Min Aung Hlaing ended the state of emergency and announced plans to hold elections by the end of the year. He dissolved the State Administrative Council and formed a new interim government and a National Security and Peace Commission, and designated himself as its head.

While PM Modi hoped that elections would be held in a fair and inclusive manner, involving all stakeholders, and pledged support for a Myanmar-led and Myanmar-owned peace process, there are signs of a potential, albeit fragile, return to electoral politics. Though there will be a return of democratic principles on paper, at least, it is expected that the country will remain engulfed in civil war, with ethnic armed groups controlling large territories and engaging in frequent clashes with the military, which is expected to further escalate around the elections.