India and Israel redefine deterrence under the nuclear shadow

India and Israel went beyond the typical crisis management by redefining deterrence not as frozen, but dynamic and multi-dimensional.

- MANISH DABHADE

In a short span of time, India and Israel began decisive military campaigns—India's Operation Sindoor and Israel's Operation Rising Lion—that directly challenged the long-standing nuclear deterrence posturing of Pakistan and Iran. These ambitious moves herald a sea change in states' power to answer nuclear-armed or aspiring nuclear enemies with viable conventional responses under the nuclear overhang, if states have strategic motivations, technological advantage, and discriminate restraint.

India's Operation Sindoor on 7 May 2025, was a response to the Pahalgam terror attack conducted by Pakistan-based terrorists, with a special focus on attacking Hindu tourists. Unlike earlier crises—in which India's responses were either covert or symbolically constrained—Sindoor enunciated a new doctrine of escalatory control using calibrated punishment. Long-range precision weapons such as Rafales with SCALP missiles and Israeli SPICE-guided bombs were used to target multiple bases and supporting military infrastructure of terrorists across the Line of Control. Remarkably, these strikes were levelled again and again on consecutive nights, signaling a change of doctrine from deterrence-by-denial to deterrence-by-punishment.

The greatest departure, however, was India's effort to act regardless of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. Conventionally, the Pakistani military has relied on its nuclear capability to provide cover to proxy terrorism. With strikes directly at Pakistani military installations that were used to sponsor terrorism—and not going to a general war—India called this bluff. Strikes were precise and carefully controlled: no attacks on Pakistani cities, on nuclear installations, on strategic hubs. Such surgical strikes prevented escalation and sent a very serious military and political message.