After Alaska, What's Next for Russia's War on Ukraine?

Trump's inconsistent Ukraine policy aids Putin's strategy, complicates peace, and risks weakening Western unity against Russia's ongoing aggression.

- JOHN DOBSON

A defining feature of Trump 2.0 is a pattern of firmly setting out on one course, only to change direction, sometimes more than once. The distinguished Financial Times columnist, Robert Armstrong, coined the phrase "Trump Always Chickens Out," for this behavior, or TACO. Other commentators prefer the term "flip-flop." Nowhere are these words more appropriate than in Trump's attitude to Russia and the war in Ukraine.

During his 2024 campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly insisted that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of inauguration. This was a classic Trump boast, which few if any took seriously. It was therefore not surprising that the pledge quickly softened in January this year when Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Lt Gen Keith Kellogg, announced that the Administration now aimed for a "solid and sustainable" agreement within 100 days instead.

The following month, Trump initiated a surprise phone call with Vladimir Putin, aiming to restart direct US-Russia negotiations, drawing criticism for bypassing Kyiv and European allies. Then in July, Trump changed his mind and reversed a pause on military aid following a major Russian drone and missile assault on Ukraine. He threatened 100% tariffs and secondary sanctions on countries trading with Russia if a ceasefire wasn't agreed within 50 days.

Around the same period, he publicly stated that he was "angry" with Putin and threatened secondary oil tariffs if Russia didn't halt its aggression. Just days later, however, Trump changed his mind again and dialed back, urging European allies to take a lead in supporting Ukraine and scaling back direct US military involvement.

SUMMER BROUGHT MORE DRAMATIC REVERSALS AND CONTRADICTIONS