What flags and fishy structures say about Chinese power projection in disputed waters

The Philippines and South Korea are targets of 'grey zone' tactics at a time when US policy towards China is unsettled.

- Denny Roy

A dodgy disused oil rig in the Yellow Sea and rival displays of national flags on a tiny South China Sea sandbar seem inconsequential compared with the Ukraine war negotiation and the impending danger of economic recession. But two minor recent incidents may be warnings of new flashpoints in US-China relations.

US President Donald Trump, who marked his 100th day in office recently, touted in a celebratory speech in Michigan some of the highlights of his second term so far: mass deportation of illegal migrants, downsizing government, and eliminating diversity, equity and inclusion programmes.

"We've just gotten started. You haven't even seen anything yet," he told the audience at Macomb Community College.

What we've seen so far includes the US breaking up with its Western European allies. In the Asia-Pacific region, by contrast, the Trump administration is continuing to assist security partners to contribute to the strength of defensive coalitions to contain Chinese expansion.

US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth travelled to Asia in March despite the distraction of the Signal texting scandal. He did not stop in South Korea, which is understandable because that country was still in the midst of impeaching its president.

But Mr Hegseth visited Japan, where he committed to follow through with the Biden administration's decision to level up the US military headquarters in Japan from a real estate and public relations office to a war-fighting command centre.

Mr Hegseth also said the US plans to increase joint military training and co-production of weapons systems with Japan.

In the Philippines, Mr Hegseth continued the recent tradition of US senior officials saying publicly that an attack against Philippine government ships or aircraft anywhere in the South China Sea would invoke the US-Philippines defence treaty.