The hot air of Trump's tariffs is approaching a ceiling of cold reality

Even before their full effect has hit, the duties are doing real damage.

- Alan Beattie

It wasn’t all that long ago that multinational companies and foreign governments were in a permanent state of hyper-vigilance for another Donald Trump outburst on social media threatening a new barrage of tariffs.

These days, there’s a steady procession of news events the other way. The meeting in October with Chinese President Xi Jinping, in which Mr Trump backed down after threatening a massive escalation of tariffs, now looks a lot like an inflection point.

Last week, having remained composed in the face of Trumpian invective against the criminal prosecution of his coup-fomenting predecessor, Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was rewarded with massive cuts in US tariffs on food. Fellow Central and South American countries Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala and El Salvador got similar relief, and so probably will the European Union.

Canada has yet to be clobbered with the additional 10 per cent tariffs Mr Trump threatened for the heinous crime of accurately quoting Mr Ronald Reagan in a TV ad. Reports suggest he will soften or shelve forthcoming tariffs on semiconductors.

There’s a Supreme Court ruling coming up, too, that might force him to reconstruct the tariff wall at high speed using other legal instruments, drawing more attention to a policy that’s already unpopular with the public and businesses.

In this context, Mr Trump’s continued pro-tariff ramblings in an attempt to turn round hostile public opinion have a slightly pathetic air. Reality has let him down, and railing at it won’t help.

In fact, there’s probably worse to come.