Stocking up on shares? Experts call for caution

Trump's 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs not a back-to-square-one moment, they say

- Angela Tan

United States President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on additional tariffs for most countries has sent the bears in the stock markets retreating, but the conditions for a sustained rebound may not be in place yet, analysts warn.

Most countries, including Singapore, now face a 10 per cent tariff on their exports to the US, effective April 5.

China, which retaliated against what it called threats and blackmail from Washington, is subject to a fresh 145 per cent tariff this year.

In retaliation, the world's second-largest economy imposed a 125 per cent tariff on American goods entering China effective from April 12. The tit-for-tat tariff war between the two superpowers could still harm global trade and economic growth, analysts said.

"When the dust settles, we'll be in a much higher tariff world than we were when Trump walked into office," said Mr Stephen Olson, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. This will be damaging for everyone, but more so for the small, trade-dependent countries of South-east Asia, which will find themselves most vulnerable, he said.

The 90-day reprieve from worst-case so-called reciprocal tariffs on "any country, except for China" is by no means a back-to-square-one moment.

Ms Eunice Tan, head of Asia-Pacific credit research at S&P Global Ratings, said strained US-China relations will affect Asia-Pacific economies, given the region's integrated trade ties with both countries. "A sharper deterioration in China-US relations will further strain confidence, and severely disrupt supply chains and global trade flows," she said, warning of other negative multiplier effects on households and businesses.

Analysts noted that sector-specific tariffs, such as those on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, remain in place, and ongoing negotiations for potential trade agreements have yielded no deals so far.