More continuity than change expected as China believes external outlook is uncertain

China's top leaders will gather in Beijing on Oct 20 for a four-day meeting that will be closely watched for clues on how they plan to tackle the country's biggest challenges, from sluggish consumption to the trade and technology war with the US.

- Lim Min Zhang China Correspondent

Known as the Fourth Plenum, the closed-door meeting will review proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan, which charts the country's economic and social development strategy from 2026 to 2030.

The Straits Times looks at the significance of the Fourth Plenum, how it is expected to shape China's growth for the next five years, and what changes in leadership could be on the cards.

WHAT HAPPENS AT THE FOURTH PLENUM?

The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which comprises about 370 of the country's most powerful leaders, holds seven plenary sessions every five-year term. The upcoming gathering will be the fourth of the 20th Central Committee elected in 2022.

The main agenda for this meeting is to discuss and endorse the party's proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan. The plan itself will come into effect after the Parliament approves it in March 2026.

The plan is a sprawling document that sets out a range of socioeconomic targets for the next five years, such as average life expectancy, labour productivity growth, and grain production capacity.

What used to be Soviet-style central planning has evolved into a comprehensive blueprint that spans carbon emissions reduction, military modernisation and growing China's cultural power.

Analysts will also be watching for possible personnel moves, as the Central Committee often uses such gatherings to remove sidelined officials from its ranks and promote alternate members to fill their seats.

WHAT WILL THE NEXT FIVE-YEAR PLAN ENTAIL?