Indonesia's 10-year power plan: Green boon or climate doom?

Renewable energy bulk of new power capacity, but plan includes more coal plants

- Wahyudi Soeriaatmadja

JAKARTA - Indonesia has backtracked on pledges it had made to stop building new coal-fired power stations - other than those it had already previously committed to - with the announcement of a new 10-year plan that includes more coal plants coming into operation as late as 2033.

But in a shift from the past, renewable energy comprises the majority of the 69.5 gigawatts (GW) additional power capacity outlined in the government's 2025-2034 electricity procurement business plan (RUPTL).

The ambitious plan, released on May 26, has been met with scepticism, with analysts and observers questioning whether the country can truly achieve its power supply and environmental targets.

Indonesia issues updated power business plans every few years to reflect estimated electricity demand growth, investment needs and technology costs. The last one, covering the years from 2021 to 2030, was released in September 2021.

Based on the new 10-year plan, Indonesia would have to build renewable power plants five times faster than today in the first five years and 11 times faster in the second five years of the period, Mr Tata Mustasya, the executive director of the Indonesian Sustainable Welfare Foundation (Sustain), told The Straits Times.

"This is hard to achieve without major policy reforms," Mr Tata said, pointing out that between 2018 and 2023, Indonesia added a total of 3.2GW of renewable power capacity, or equivalent to 0.53 GW annually, and a 2025 target to achieve 23 per cent renewable energy was later revised to between 17 and 19 per cent.

At present, wind and solar comprise less than 1 per cent of Indonesia's annual power-generating capacity.

Some of the policy reforms, according to Mr Tata, include offering attractive power purchase rates to solar farms and channelling some of the government royalties collected from coal mines to the construction of smart grids to help distribute power from the renewables.