How Ukraine and Gaza scrambled the ideological map

The two wars have divided the West — and not along the old left-right lines.

- Gideon Rachman

If somebody tells me what they think about one issue, I often have a fair idea of what they think about something else. A vote for Leave or Remain in Britain’s Brexit referendum is a strong predictor of views on other topics — such as immigration, the death penalty or Donald Trump.

But this predictive pattern breaks down when it comes to Ukraine and Gaza. Among commentators — and even governments — you can find groups that are pro-Israel and pro-Ukraine; pro-Ukraine and pro-Palestine; pro-Russia and pro-Israel; and pro-Russia and pro-Palestine.

Of course, terms like “pro-Palestine” or “pro-Russia” are very imprecise. They cover a wide variety of positions. But they remain a useful shorthand for real political divides.

Frequently, the divisions between the “pro” and “anti” camps are expressed as arguments about Western foreign policy. Those in the “pro-Palestine” camp are keen to press war crimes charges against Israeli leaders and to increase pressure on the country. The “pro-Israel” group are broadly supportive of giving the Netanyahu government a free hand and dismissive of charges that Israel is committing genocide.

When it comes to the Ukraine war, “pro-Russians” tend to argue that Moscow has legitimate grievances that need to be recognised. The “pro-Ukraine” position is to demand increased support for Kyiv and much more pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

So why has the ideological map become so complicated since the outbreak of the Ukraine and Gaza wars?