How real is Trump's U-turn on Ukraine?

The reversal is significant given the US President's previous views on Putin, but the sanctions grace period and Trumpian fickleness are reasons for caution.

- Jonathan Eyal

"We want to make sure Ukraine can do what it wants to do." That statement from US President Donald Trump on July 14 marked a U-turn on his previous position on support for the Ukrainians, locked in a brutal, bloody war against Russian invaders, now in its fourth year.

In typical Trump fashion, the remarks made at a White House meeting with NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte were both imprecise and an exaggeration. It is still far from clear how much in terms of weapons and money Mr Trump is willing to contribute to Ukraine's war against Russia. And it's doubtful that the American President truly intends to give the Ukrainians a free hand to decide their future.

Still, Mr Trump's decision to resume US supplies of weapons to Ukraine represents a significant policy shift.

For the first time since he returned to power, the American leader is now explicitly blaming Russia and not Ukraine for the continuation of Europe's bloodiest conflict since World War II. It is a rare move for Mr Trump, who otherwise claims to be as infallible as God, to tacitly accept that a major plank of his original foreign policy agenda has turned out to be dead wrong.

A SINGULAR OBSESSION

The policy reversal is remarkable given Mr Trump's very obvious admiration for President Vladimir Putin, who has ruled Russia with an iron fist for the past quarter of a century. Commentators have struggled to explain this phenomenon, which sets Mr Trump apart from former US presidents. What's more, post-Soviet Russia has neither the power to command respect nor much of an economic opportunity. There never was a domestic electoral advantage in openly supporting Russia. Nor was there much benefit in trying to justify the Russian President's actions.