Glossy numbers, uneven realities: Singapore's job-light recovery

To an outsider, Singapore's recent macroeconomic numbers look like a glossy shop window — bright, polished, and full of high-value goods.

- Selena Ling

Workers displaced from one sector often struggle to transition into roles that demand different qualifications or experience, says the writer. Singapore's recent Budgets have doubled down on workforce transformation, and Budget 2025 strengthened initiatives like the SkillsFuture Level-Up Programme. ST PHOTO: LIM YAOHUI

(ST PHOTO: LIM YAOHUI)

But the reality depends on where you stand, whether you're in a swanky shop in Marina Bay Sands, or a humble HDB provision store. Foot traffic can tell a drastically different story, too.

This divergence is often called a “K-shaped recovery” - where different segments rebound at radically different speeds. High earners ride buoyant stock markets and growth sectors, while low-wage workers and small businesses face volatility, slower income growth, and a widening digital divide.

In Singapore, the macro picture looks strong: third-quarter 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised up more than expected at 4.2 per cent year on year, beating advance estimates of 2.9 per cent year on year, as well as market expectations. This brought the GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 to 4.3 per cent year on year, just below the 4.4 per cent year on year seen for the whole of 2024. The Ministry of Trade and Industry has also upgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.5-2.5 per cent, to around 4 per cent year on year, tipping it to moderate to 1-3 per cent year on year in 2026.