Chinese AI Is Catching Up, Posing a Dilemma for Donald Trump

The success of cheap Chinese models threatens America's technological lead.

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If there is a single technology America needs to bring about the "thrilling new era of national success" that US President Donald Trump promised in his inauguration speech, it is generative artificial intelligence (AI). At the very least, AI will add to the next decade's productivity gains, fueling economic growth. At the most, it will power humanity through a transformation comparable to the Industrial Revolution.

Mr. Trump's hosting the next day of the launch of "the largest AI infrastructure project in history" shows he grasps the potential. But so does the rest of the world—and most of all, China. Even as Mr. Trump was giving his inaugural oration, a Chinese firm released the latest impressive large language model (LLM). Suddenly, America's lead over China in AI looks smaller than at any time since ChatGPT became famous.

China's catch-up is startling because it had been so far behind—and because America had set out to slow it down. President Joe Biden's administration feared that advanced AI could secure the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) military supremacy. So America has curtailed exports to China of the best chips for training AI and cut off China's access to many of the machines needed to make substitutes. Behind its protective wall, Silicon Valley has swaggered. Chinese researchers devour American papers on AI; Americans have rarely returned the compliment.

Yet, China's most recent progress is upending the industry and embarrassing American policymakers. The success of the Chinese models, combined with industry-wide changes, could turn the economics of AI on its head. America must prepare for a world in which Chinese AI is breathing down its neck.