China still backing Myanmar's junta as it's 'more predictable'

Support comes despite frustration with regime and its losses to resistance forces

- Lim Min Zhang

BEIJING - China has signalled its continued support for Myanmar's military regime, even as the latter's hold on power looks increasingly uncertain.

On Aug 14, China's top diplomat Wang Yi met Myanmar's junta chief Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyitaw. This meeting came just days after resistance forces captured the northern city of Lashio a major regional command in early August, in another significant defeat for the beleaguered junta.

Two days later, on Aug 16 at a press conference in Thailand, Mr Wang said China supported Myanmar in "restarting the democratic transition process through general election".

China's concern with conflict near its border has grown. On Aug 26, the People's Liberation Army Southern Theatre Command said it was sending troops to Ruili and Zhenkang two areas in Yunnan province that border Myanmar - to conduct armed patrols for the "security and stability of the frontier areas".

Analysts say Beijing is still backing the junta as it could offer more predictability, even as its frustration with General Min Aung Hlaing's regime has grown.

Dr Zachary Abuza, an expert on South-east Asian politics at the National War College in Washington, said: "(Beijing) knows how a government with military representation or dominance would behave and what policies it would pursue.

"They can't say how a democratic federal government that emerged from the thorough defeat of the military would act."

The ongoing turmoil means that Beijing will continue to hedge between warring parties, analysts said, with the greater aim of securing growing Chinese influence and maintaining interests from border security and trade.

China has significant investments in Myanmar's infrastructure, including oil and gas pipelines in conflict-ridden areas.