Inflation halts 4-month decline Likely picked up to 3% in February

Headline inflation may have picked up for the first time in four months in February, mainly driven by higher rice prices and electricity rates, according to a poll of top economists.

- KEISHA TA-ASAN

Aris Dacanay, economist for ASEAN at HSBC, said inflation likely went up to three percent in February from an over three-year low of 2.8 percent in January.

Sarah Tan of Moody's Analytics also believes inflation accelerated to three percent last month, driven by higher prices of rice, meat and fuel.

For Ruben Carlo Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, inflation may have climbed to 3.1 percent in February and average 4.1 percent this year, before easing to 3.8 percent in 2025.

If realized, this will be the first time that inflation quickened since it began easing in September 2023. However, this will also be the third month the consumer price index (CPI) landed within the two to four percent target set by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

Dacanay said unfavorable base effects would be the biggest drivers of acceleration in February.

"Without any sudden change in policy or external conditions, these unfavorable base effects will likely remain in place until July of this year and can potentially push inflation to breach the central bank's two to four percent target band sometime in the second quarter," he said.

Elevated prices of rice and electricity rates also fanned inflationary pressures during the month, Dacanay said.