Economists Expect Higher August Inflation

Headline inflation is expected to edge higher in August after slipping to a six-year low of 0.9 percent in July, with economists projecting modest price pressures from higher food, fuel, and power costs.

- — Keisha Ta-asan

UnionBank chief economist Carlo Asuncion said the August consumer price index (CPI) likely rose by 0.9 to 1.5 percent, with a central forecast of 1.2 percent.

"The slight uptick from July's 0.9 percent is driven by emerging pass-through effects from higher energy prices, wage adjustments, and imported goods, especially amid a weaker peso," he said.

He flagged rising palay prices in rice-producing regions ahead of the government's 60-day rice import ban as an upside risk, while supply disruptions from weather disturbances could also add pressure.

On the other hand, base effects and sustained rice deflation, which fell by 15.8 percent year-on-year in July, could temper headline CPI.