ADB, AMRO Turn Bearish on Philippine Economy

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Plus 3 (ASEAN+3) Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) have trimmed growth forecasts for the Philippines for this year and the next due to slower global growth and heightened trade uncertainties from the imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the United States.

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In its Asian Development Outlook for July 2025 released yesterday, the ADB said it revised down its 2025 economic growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.6 percent from six percent previously. This is within the government's revised growth target of 5.5 to 6.5 percent for this year.

For 2026, the multilateral lender also slashed its growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.8 percent from the previous 6.1 percent. This is below the government's revised growth goal of six to seven percent for next year.

The ADB revised its growth forecasts for the Philippines amid external headwinds.

Philippine economic growth was at 5.4 percent in the first quarter, slightly faster than the previous quarter's 5.3 percent, but lower than the 5.9 percent growth in the same period last year.

The ADB also downgraded its growth outlook for Southeast Asia for 2025 and 2026 "due to the continuing global growth slowdown and increased trade uncertainty."

In particular, the ADB lowered the 2025 growth forecast for Southeast Asia to 4.2 percent from 4.7 percent previously.

For next year, the ADB downscaled its growth forecast for Southeast Asia to 4.3 percent from the previous expectation of 4.7 percent.