TURNING IN A WIDENING GYRE

INDIA is cautiously evaluating Donald Trump’s birthday greetings to his friend Narendra Modi after weeks of accusing India of protectionism.

- PRATIK KANJILAL

Was it premature for PM Modi to project a united front with Xi and Putin at Tianjin, since, in the long term, the US and India are natural partners? Or was the show of unity in China just as natural, since Indian industry needs China’s inputs to grow, China needs India’s markets, and both need Russian oil?

There are no clear answers visible in the new world disorder. The only certainty is that the system is disorderly, that its anchors have come unstuck, and that all things that rely on a common understanding and shared mechanisms will change—from trade and security to the environment and public health.

Trade is directly affected—it’s become the art of the deal. The US had chafed at rules-based multilateral forums for years, and Trump has provided the derring-do to turn back to unilateralism and bilateralism, which help powerful nations to prevail. Since 2019, Washington has been blocking appointments to the appellate body of the World Trade Organization, making its processes unenforceable. In order to send a case into limbo, amember nation only has to raise an appeal. Besides, bilateral tariff threats exceed the caps set in the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs and bilateral deals bypass the system of most favoured nations, undermining the authority of the WTO.