FROM AFGHANISTAN TO AL-SHAMISTAN

What really happened in Syria? Waiel Awwad paints the last hours of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in startling light, on the war-torn canvas of West Asia

- DR WAIEL AWWAD

IN the fog of war and modern diplomacy, fact and fiction are often hard to separate. How did the Bashar al-Assad regime meet its spectacular collapse? How did the secular Ba'athist state, which had ruled uninterrupted since 1963, fall after 13 years of brutal civil war? What led to the takeover by the small band of Islamistjihadist militia, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), born out of ISIS and AI Qaeda, and paradoxically supported by the USled West?

Here is a narrative based on the insights of those at the heart of the deposed regime the one side that has not fully shared its version of events. It provides a glimpse into the treacherous ground Syria became by the end of 2024. At the core of Syria's collapse were two key actors-Russia and Turkey normally seen as being on opposing sides in the global divide between the West and the Iran-led Axis of Resistance. Russia was Syria's main backer, while Turkey, hostile to Assad, had been hosting NATO intelligence agents plotting the regime's downfall since 2011. In reality, however, behind the scenes, complex negotiations unfolded across most dividing lines, particularly between Russia and Turkey. Ultimately, Syria became the bargaining chip.

Seen from the heart of Damascus, Assad was betrayed both by his inner circle and his supposed allies. After Syria's victory over ISIS in Aleppo in 2017, Russia miscalculated. Syrian forces were prevented from pursuing militants into Idlib province due to Russian assurances, stemming from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's promise to protect Syrian positions.