Moody’s, GCR see signs of recovery as South Africa’s growth outlook remains stable

RATINGS agencies Moody’s and GCR Ratings say a positive trend is emerging in South Africa’s economic growth trajectory, with both agencies maintaining a stable outlook as reforms begin to show progress and fiscal discipline continues to hold.

- YOGASHEN PILLAY

At a joint media briefing on Tuesday, Evan Wohlmann, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody's, said the agency expects real GDP growth to improve to around 1.6% in 2026, supported by gradual structural reforms — particularly in the logistics sector.

“There has been some notable structural reform progress. Our baseline expects reform progress particularly on logistics to continue, but the extent of private investment in new logistics infrastructure is unlikely to be sufficient to materially raise growth potential beyond 2%,” he said. Wohlmann added that while friction within the Government of National Unity (GNU) would persist, Moody’s expects coalition partners to find compromises on key legislation, as seen with the approval of the national budget earlier this year.