What the markets reveal about Israel-Iran conflict

As most of us worried, oil prices were strangely calm

- CHRIS BLACKHURST

If you want to know what is going to happen in the Israel-Iran conflict, follow the markets. On Monday, the oil price rose a little bit, but not much, and everywhere else in the City and on Wall Street, there was a relative sense of relaxation. As the rest of us were worrying about escalation, there was a curious calm from those who you might assume would have been panicking the most.

Yesterday, following news of the Iran-Israel ceasefire, oil and gas prices fell. Then, when it appeared as though the truce might not last, they climbed again. The movements were not huge certainly not of the magnitude we might expect with the outbreak of war in the Middle East, the world's prime energy supplier.

Certainly, they are not embarking on the traditional rollercoaster, soaring and plunging on every development as they have done in past crises. So, what did the traders and their analysts know that we didn't? The temptation is to say they are deliberately remaining quiet, that they believe the fight will soon blow over, and there is nothing seriously to worry about. Their algorithms and calculations are telling them to sit tight and not overreact. Well, not yet anyway.