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Key election seats to watch

The Independent

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April 27, 2025

And why they matter in this new era of multi-party politics

- KATE DEVLIN

Key election seats to watch

England's local elections on 1 May represent a key test for all the major parties. In what could be a new era of multi-party politics, Labour and Reform are almost neck-and-neck in the latest national opinion polls, with the Tories lagging behind.

And it is the latter who face the most difficult challenge. The last time this particular set of council elections was held was at the height of Boris Johnson’s “vaccine bounce”. Since then, Partygate and a series of other scandals have reversed the party’s fortunes, leaving it out of power in Westminster for the first time since 2010.

But Labour could also struggle in certain seats. Despite its momentous rise to power at the general election last summer, the party has made a series of controversial decisions since then, including scrapping winter fuel allowance for millions of pensioners and sweeping welfare and international aid cuts, that could trigger a backlash from voters.

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s Reform will discover whether its momentum in the opinion polls continues or has started to stall.

As well as council elections, there are also a number of mayoral positions up for grabs, and a parliamentary by-election.

Here are the key seats to look out for in the early hours of Friday morning and beyond – and why they matter.

Mayors

Greater Lincolnshire

A recent YouGov poll suggested that the Reform candidate, former Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns, is well ahead in this contest.

One of two new mayoral positions being contested for the first time, it is seen as likely to be a two-horse race between the Tories and Reform. While Mr Farage’s party has picked an exTory, the Conservatives have stayed local, with the leader of North Lincolnshire council Rob Waltham.

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