If you refuse to take Farage seriously, time to think again

Many people in politics think Nigel Farage is like the flame on a Christmas pudding: all show and over in a minute.

- JOHN RENTOUL

I meet Conservatives who think he will have blown himself out by the end of this parliament and that they will have reestablished themselves as the party of sound money. Labour people are different. Those who are dismissive of Farage tend to be "hung parliamenters". They say they recognise that Farage is a threat, but they take refuge in the comfortable fudge of an inconclusive next election and a continued Labour government with Liberal Democrat support.

Both types need to learn to count. Reform's online membership ticker passed 270,000 this morning, as leaked figures revealed that Labour has fewer than 250,000 members. Reform is now the largest party in Britain, and that matters.

Some Farage doubters point out that Labour had half a million members when Jeremy Corbyn was leader, and he didn't win. Which is true, but the point is that he nearly did in 2017, when a large and enthusiastic membership helped to compensate for the weaknesses of his policies.

What is significant about Reform overtaking Labour is not that Labour's membership has fallen. That happens to parties in government. Labour had 405,000 members when Tony Blair was leader of the opposition, which declined when he was prime minister, even though he was a popular one for some time.