By-election could define politics for years to come

Sir Keir Starmer’s government enjoys a working majority in the House of Commons of 168. If Labour loses today’s by-election in Gorton and Denton, its majority will fall to 167.

- 

Normally, a government with that kind of dominance of parliament would be able to set its course and stick to it, and there should be no question about the prime minister's hold on office.

But this is not a normal by-election. This could be a defining test of what will happen to a political system that seems to be fragmenting before our eyes. What is also unusual about this election is that there are three possible outcomes, each equally likely, and each leading to very different consequences.

There have been two opinion polls in the constituency by reputable organisations, and they both showed that the Green, Reform and Labour candidates are within the margin of error of each other.

If Hannah Spencer, the Green Party candidate, were to win, it would be a disaster for the prime minister. His strategy has been to present the next general election as a choice between him and Nigel Farage. His implied argument is that Labour is the leading party of a tactical alliance against Reform - and that Green, Lib Dem and one-nation Conservative voters should rally behind his banner to stop Mr Farage from becoming prime minister.

But if the Green wins in Gorton and Denton, Labour's claim to lead the progressive wing of politics will be undermined. Sir Keir's pose as tough on immigration and welfare spending, which has been regarded as an attempt to appease Reform-minded voters, will have backfired by driving away voters on the other side of the spectrum.