Stark warning for Starmer after election rout in Wales

Repeat of Caerphilly loss in 2026 elections 'could mean the end for PM'

- Peter Walker, Aletha Adu, Steven Morris

A wipeout for Labour in next May's local elections would spell the end of Keir Starmer's premiership, MPs warned yesterday, after the party suffered a crushing defeat in its traditional heartland in Wales.

Though Plaid Cymru beat Reform UK to capture the Senedd seat in Caerphilly, the result highlighted a striking collapse of Labour's vote, prompting fears in Westminster that the party could be reduced to third place in Wales - so long one of its symbolic heartlands - a loss that could leave the leader's position unrecoverable.

In a town that Labour had controlled for more than a century, the party secured just 11% of the vote - a negative swing of 27%. The humiliating result showed it is highly vulnerable to challenges from other progressive parties, as well as from Reform.

It provoked renewed outpouring of anger and concern by some Labour MPs, with one condemning what they called a "totally incoherent" strategy within No 10.

"If the national vote across Wales in May is even in the ballpark of Caerphilly, there's absolutely no way we can carry on like we are after that," one senior backbencher said.

"Obviously, parties in government struggle in byelections, but when your vote collapses to that extent, someone has got to take responsibility for it. Everyone's miserable, everyone's despondent. It's not as if there is an obvious sort of answer or successor to get us out of this mess. But we're all pretty clear, we can't just carry on as we are."

The May elections, which include contests for more than 1,600 council seats across England, as well as for the Welsh and Scottish parliaments, has long been seen as a crossroads for Starmer, with some senior ministers predicting he could face a challenge if losses were particularly steep.