Shadow war Proxy use by main players is driving instability

As Marco Rubio ended his brief visit to the Middle East on Friday, he sought to cast in the best possible light his discussions with leaders of the Gulf states.

- Jason Burke

Those leaders are deeply anxious that the deal agreed earlier this month between Iran and the US fails to address their worries about continued Iranian efforts to project power and influence in the region.

“They’ve shared with us some very concrete concerns,” the US secretary of state admitted, and insisted any definitive agreement will require Tehran to not only restrict its nuclear programme but also halt its support of Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, militia in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen.

But analysts and western security officials believe Iran is likely to increase its support for such groups after the conflict.

The activities of irregular fighters funded and armed by Israel and, to a lesser extent, the US too, is also likely to intensify, they say.

Hezbollah remains the mainstay of Iran’s coalition of allied groups, despite suffering badly in prolonged clashes with Israel in 2024 and 2025. The militant Islamist organisation also manifestly failed in its primary strategic role for Iran: to deter an Israeli direct strike.

But Tehran remains committed to Hezbollah, which was founded in Lebanon with the support of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps more than 40 years ago. Hanin Ghaddar, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: “The Iranians see this as a temporary bad phase and believe Hezbollah will regenerate ... It is vital for the Revolutionary Guards to rebuild their proxies around the region and to control their decisions.”