Areas that received levelling up funds had smaller Reform vote share - study

Areas that received money from the last government's much-criticised levelling up fund tended to have lower votes for Nigel Farage's Reform UK in the general election, a study has found, indicating that projects delivering quick results may hold back support for populism.

- Peter Walker Kiran Stacey

The Social Market Foundation (SMF) thinktank's study, billed as the first to examine a mass of data factors linked to support for Reform at the level of individual seats, identified a series of factors likely to make voters more probable voters for the party.

Some were common to populism studies in other countries, for example a correlation between a lower number of voters having degrees and above-average support for Reform.

The party also tended to do well in places with a large white population, along with areas where this was becoming proportionally lower owing to newer arrivals. Higher levels of crime were also closely associated with Farage's party doing well.

More surprising was that an older population did not seem to point to a greater likelihood of Reform success, and modelling showed seats that received levelling up funding tended to have smaller Reform vote shares than would be otherwise expected given their demographics.