One false move

The high-level visits and diplomacy of recent days have all been to one end: containment. Because if the conflict spills over, the consequences will be global

- Jason Burke

Last Thursday morning, the USS Carney, a US Navy guided-missile destroyer, was in the northern Red Sea when its radar detected three cruise missiles apparently launched by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The missiles' target was unclear but they were heading north, so it was "potentially" Israel. Within a very short time, the Carney had destroyed them all.

These were the first shots fired by the US in defence of Israel in the current conflict. The Pentagon press secretary, Brig Gen Pat Ryder, later told reporters the intervention was "to send a strong message intended to deter a wider conflict" and "regional escalation".

The crew of the USS Carney are not alone in having this objective. Since terrorist attacks by Hamas on 7 October that killed 1,400 Israelis and prompted retaliation that has so far led to the deaths of more than 5,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local authorities, many people have been working very hard to contain the hostilities. The motives and means of presidents, prime ministers, priests, humanitarians, protesters, influencers, spies, diplomats and many others may vary but foremost for many is the very real fear of the consequences for all of us of failure.

One scenario runs like this: Israel launches a ground offensive into Gaza that causes the current civilian death toll there to double, or worse. Tensions across the Middle East reached a white-hot level, spilling over into countries far beyond the region. Israel ignores widespread outrage as the humanitarian situation deteriorates and fights on until Hamas, sustaining heavy losses, is reduced to a broken rabble.