How jihadist group has brought Mali to brink of Islamist rule

The al-Qaida-linked jihadist group Jama'at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) was this week gradually converging on Mali's capital, Bamako, after increasing attacks in recent weeks, including on army-backed convoys.

- Eromo Egbejule ABIDJAN

Armed groups of JNIM fighters blocked key routes used by fuel tankers, disrupting supply lines to the capital and other regions across Mali. Should the city fall, the west African country would be on its way to becoming an Islamist republic with strict interpretations of sharia law.

That would fulfil a jihadist mandate following in the steps of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan or Syria, where the former rebel Ahmed al-Sharaa, previously known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, is now head of state.

In areas under its control, JNIM is already enforcing dress codes and punishments via courts that, as Human Rights Watch noted in a 2024 report, did not adhere to fair trial standards.

Last Tuesday the US state department issued its second advisory in a week to its citizens in Mali, urging all US citizens to "depart immediately using commercial aviation", citing the "unpredictability of Bamako's security situation". Australia, Germany and Italy also urged their citizens to leave.

Observers within and outside Mali say the US's warnings indicate that the country is on the brink of a third successful coup in five years and the sixth since independence from France in September 1960.