India needs new playbook to manage its neighbourhood

Beyond humanitarian outreach, India needs sharper intelligence and covert capabilities to anticipate and shape events in its neighbourhood

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"India lives in a tough neighbourhood of fragile states. Many of the smaller states in the subcontinent are beset with internal strife on the one hand and near economic collapse on the other, creating a vicious cycle of popular dissatisfaction, leading to forced regime changes. It is also a bitter fact for India that, more often than not, the rulers of these states, going through tumultuous times, try to escape the wrath of their populace by blaming New Delhi for their troubles. Yet, the fact that India's strategists have as yet not been able to create a playbook for either managing them or even predicting which way the wind will blow in these neighbouring capitals in order to take proactive steps to contain the occasional coup comes as more than a surprise to most observers.

Two almost identical colour revolutions occurred in the neighbourhood over the last year or so.

Students mobilised through social media apps stormed the streets of Dhaka a year ago, forcing the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government to flee. A year later, in an identical manner, Kathmandu witnessed riotous scenes, with Gen-Z protestors rampaging through the streets and attacking houses of politicians after campaigns vilifying the ruling elite using Tik Tok apps.

India, which was caught on the wrong foot in Bangladesh's case, seems to have been caught walking blind in Nepal, too, Though to be fair, South Block did manage to react faster to the anarchy unfolding in Kathmandu and possibly bolstered the hands of the Nepalese Army in bringing about a far less chaotic change of government and ensuring that elections were promised within a set time frame. This was unlike Bangladesh, where even after 14 months an unelected, interim government remains in place.