India's Fragile Pivot as Middle East Conflict Escalates

For India, this is not merely a foreign policy challenge; it is a test of strategic maturity, economic resilience, and moral courage

- SHAILESH HARIBHAKTI

In the early hours of June 12th and 13th, 2025, Israel launched its most significant military operation against Iran in over a decade. The strikes targeted multiple nuclear and military installations—near Natanz, Isfahan, Fordow, and several key Revolutionary Guard missile depots. The attacks followed months of rising tensions, proxy strikes, and tit-for-tat escalations after earlier confrontations in 2024. But this time, the scale was altogether different, a direct strike on Iran's nuclear programme itself.

The world woke up to horrific images of fireballs lighting the Iranian skies, the loss of innocent lives, and anxious families fleeing towns near targeted sites. Iranian casualties, both military and civilian, are feared to be in the hundreds. The images pierce our conscience, reminding us yet again of the terrible cost of unresolved geopolitical rivalries. Amidst the ruins, humanity once again pays the price for power struggles it neither starts nor controls.

The fallout: The economic and humanitarian aftershocks were immediate: Brent crude spiked to $116/bbl, as global markets priced in the real possibility of wider Middle East warfare; global supply chains faltered once again, just as fragile recovery post-COVID, Ukraine, and Red Sea disruptions had begun to stabilise; the Strait of Hormuz became a high-risk war-zone, threatening 20% of global oil shipments; insurance premiums on shipping quadrupled overnight, with major shipping lines halting transits; gold surged past $2,450/oz, as investors fled to safety; and global equity markets plummeted, with the Dow losing 2,000 points and Asian markets in freefall.

For India, and much of the Global South, this conflict is not an abstraction. It is an everyday threat to fuel security, food prices, currency stability, employment, and millions of lives bound to Middle Eastern economies.

India's exposure: India's vulnerabilities, already acute, are now pushed into dangerous territory: