VENEZUELAN CRUDE CAN NEVER REPLACE RUSSIAN OIL, SAY EXPERTS AMID ROW

While the US president Donald Trump has claimed that India will stop buying Russian oil and instead buy more oil from the US and potentially Venezuela, experts say that Venezuelan crude is better viewed as an episodic or tactical option for India and may even serve as a negotiation lever against Russian grades rather than a sustained replacement of Russian oil.

- SHIKHA SALARIA

Prime Minister Modi and US President Donald Trump

Even as officials of both countries have been making announcements over the India-US trade deal, a draft of the deal is likely to take several months to be released while a joint statement on the same is expected to be issued by the two countries in the next four-five days.

Speaking to TDG, energy experts have said that despite Trump's claims, Venezuelan oil cannot be a plug-and-play replacement for Russian Urals and even under supportive conditions, it would take several months before refiners get comfortable running Venezuelan crude on a regular basis, and even then, volumes would remain limited relative to Russian imports.

According to Humayoun Falakshahi, Lead Research Analyst, Crude at commodity market analytic firm Kpler, despite Reliance agreeing to buy two mbbls of Venezuelan crude for its Jamnagar refinery within two-three days of the US and India announcing that a trade deal between the two countries had been finalised, Venezuelan crude is unlikely to become a core supply source for India.

A report prepared by Kpler states that Reliance Industries has bought 2 Mbbls of Venezuelan crude for April delivery—India’s first purchase since May 2025—with flows likely to remain episodic rather than structural.