Cyril hanging by a thread

If the GNU, or government of national unity, is an endangered species, so too is game-farming President Cyril Ramaphosa, also known as McBuffalo.

- Martin Williams

If the GNU were to collapse, Ramaphosa's presidency could be short-lived.

He knows that.

His grip on power is slender.

To command a majority in the 400-seat National Assembly, any government needs at least 201 seats.

The ANC has 159. While the GNU is comfortable on 272 seats, that would change if the DA were to withdraw its 87 votes.

GNU would be left with 185 (ANC plus: IFP 15, PA 8, Good 2, NFP 1).

Waiting to pounce would be MK 58, EFF 38, VF+ 6, ActionSA 6, UDM4 and so on.

There are many possible permutations, but parties now outside the GNU could not form a majority government without either the ANC or the DA.

What could emerge from a GNU collapse is a minority government where parties lend voting support on a case-by-case basis.