China's BRI: From Reform Narrative to Strategic Regression

Twelve years after its launch, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was widely expected to enter a new phase marked by sustainability, transparency, fiscal prudence, and a stronger role for private sector leadership.

- SHARANPREET KAUR

Twelve years after its launch, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was widely expected to enter a new phase marked by sustainability, transparency, fiscal prudence, and a stronger role for private sector leadership. These expectations stemmed from the commitments made at the Third Belt and Road Forum (BRF) in 2023, where Beijing promised smaller, greener, and financially responsible projects that would depart from the earlier model of large-scale, state-driven ventures. However, the first half of 2025 reveals a different picture. From January to July 2025, Chinese economic engagement under the BRI reached an unprecedented US$124 billion in combined construction contracts and investments, already surpassing the total engagement for the entirety of 2024, which stood at US$122 billion.

This record-breaking activity has been driven by deepening cooperation in oil and gas, green energy, high-tech manufacturing, green technology supply chains, metals and mining, and digital infrastructure. In geographical terms, the focus of Chinese investments has shifted significantly. While South Asia, Africa, and Southeast Asia were the primary recipients during the first decade of the BRI, Africa and Central Asia have now emerged as priority regions in 2025. These regions offer abundant untapped energy reserves, vast mineral wealth, and a willingness to partner with Chinese firms in critical economic sectors. By directing its state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private companies to invest in manufacturing facilities, resource extraction projects, and industrial hubs, Beijing is embedding itself along entire supply chains, from raw material extraction and processing to final product manufacturing.