THE ENDGAME IN THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

Diplomacy must be bold, realistic, and inclusive, addressing deep security fears and historical grievances. Without this, peace will be fleeting

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On June 1, Ukraine executed 'Operation Spiderweb' drone strikes on Russian bases. They sent shock waves just ahead of the second round of peace talks in Istanbul and NATO's Eastern Flank summit in Vilnius.

As the Russia-Ukraine war is in its fourth year, with mounting human and economic costs and rising global pressure for a diplomatic resolution, an endgame is in place. The revival of the Istanbul peace process and renewed engagement by key international players have reoriented attention towards diplomacy. Yet major questions persist: Will Ukraine’s audacious strikes shift the war's trajectory? Can Ukraine endure the prolonged conflict? And can the main actors — Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., NATO, and the European Union — overcome entrenched divisions to forge a durable peace?

As peace talks stalled under U.S. President Donald Trump, the Istanbul peace process was cautiously revived by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Two rounds of talks on May 16 and June 1 saw prisoner swaps and draft ceasefire terms exchanged. However, deep divisions remain, with both sides presenting largely irreconcilable conditions that hinder meaningful progress.

How drones are the new face of warfare

Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’ could have ended in Istanbul negotiations in 2022, but a possible peace deal failed as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy walked away from it. Ukraine chose to continue fighting as it hoped for NATO membership and Western leaders pledged funding, weapons, and training.