N-TALKS WITH IRAN

If negotiations collapse and the US or Israel attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, Iran will retaliate against US military targets in the region and move to weaponize its nuclear programme

- Ian Bremmer

Negotiators from the United States and Iran have just convened in Oman for their fourth round of nuclear talks. The two sides remain far apart on fundamental questions, they have diverging expectations, and they are running out of time. But for the first time in years, there is cause for optimism. What distinguishes this moment is not a sudden convergence of positions but a shared recognition that diplomacy is preferable to confrontation.

Iran insists that its nuclear programme is strictly for civilian purposes, and the latest US intelligence assessment concludes that it is not currently building a nuclear weapon. Nonetheless, Iran’s enrichment activities have expanded significantly since Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. Today, Iran is a threshold nuclear state with enough 60%-enriched uranium to produce six nuclear weapons (if enriched to 90%), and the ability to “dash to a bomb” in about six months (though weaponizing a device would probably take between one and two years).

For much of the West, this situation is unacceptable. Without diplomatic progress by the end of June, the US will be compelled to trigger a “snap-back” of United Nations sanctions. But that would destroy what remains of the diplomatic track, prompt Iran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and escalate the risk of a military conflict.

Trump wants a comprehensive deal that goes beyond the JCPOA in curtailing enrichment, restraining missile development, and modifying Iran’s regional behaviour. But this is a fantasy. Iran will not agree to a full rollback of its nuclear programme, let alone dismantle its regional alliances - and especially not in the next few weeks. Nor will it give up enrichment or ballistic missile capabilities that are central to its deterrence posture.