INDIA MUST RESIST

The US has extracted significant concessions from others, including the UK, and would demand that India, too, fall in line

- Jagdish Rattanani

India is in the midst of negotiations for a trade deal with the United States under an environment of unpredictability laced with unabashed and overt arm-twisting that has become the signature call of that nation under the leadership of President Donald Trump.

These are understandably difficult negotiations, and a lot is at stake given that the US remains one of the most significant trade partners of India, reflected in the trade numbers but also in deep ties seen through the lens of the large and vibrant Indian community in the US and the number of Indians who still flock to the US for work, tourism or to study. The US has extended the deadline for a trade deal from 9 July to 1 August under the threat of punitive tariffs of 26% if an agreement is not reached by then. The extension signals hope and optimism that a deal is possible and workable, but it equally signals that the US side is pushing hard to see if India will bend under pressure. Another explanation is that the extension in itself is a case of 'TACO', or 'Trump Always Chickens Out', given that blanket tariffs on the rest of the world as envisaged by the US are not sustainable. But this is less likely with the dominant mood in Washington being to push hard, unmindful of the consequences, and India not being in a very strong position to dictate terms. Further, the US has extracted significant concessions from others, including the UK, and would demand that India, too, fall in line.