Crude conspiracy: China’s oil spree might have hidden aims

Low prices are the simplest explanation but realpolitik is likelier

- JAVIER BLAS is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy and commodities.

The big question troubling the global energy market now is why China is stockpiling so much oil. Occam’s razor recommends searching for the simplest explanation. So perhaps the answer is as straightforward as ‘because it’s cheap.’ Still, the conspiracy theorist in me says there’s more to it.

China has purchased more than 150 million barrels—costing about $10 billion at current prices—above its actual use so far this year. For a country that buys more electric vehicles (EVs) than any other, that demands dissection.

The stockpiling was exceptionally high during the second quarter, when the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that China absorbed over 90% of the global stockpiling we can measure. That has helped support prices this year, and with the oil market forecast to move into a huge surplus, whether or not China continues its buying spree—and if so, for how long—is crucial for 2026.