A Weakened Iran Prepares to Face Donald Trump 2.0

From worsening social unrest to its allies' military collapse, Tehran is bracing for what could be a difficult year

- Benoit Faucon

Iran faces a tough year of confrontation with the incoming Trump administration while holding an exceptionally weak hand after 2024 left it with an acute economic crisis at home and setbacks in the Middle East.

The new U.S. administration plans to increase sanctions on Iran as part of an aggressive effort to contain its support for militant groups in the Middle East. Tehran's strategy, less potent than it was, still threatens Washington's allies and partners, especially Israel, and is also unpopular among many ordinary Iranians. President-elect Donald Trump's team is also weighing options, including airstrikes, to keep Iran from building a nuclear weapon.

Iran's economy has already been crippled by a mix of bad management, corruption and existing sanctions. Power shortages have shut down government offices, schools and universities and disrupted production at dozens of manufacturing plants. At the same time, Iran's military threat has been blunted by Israel's battering of allies Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the now-collapsed Assad regime in Syria and much of Iran's air defenses.

The Islamic Republic's difficulties represent the biggest challenge to its clerical leaders since 2022, when the country was rocked by widespread unrest sparked by the death of a young woman in police custody after allegedly wearing an improper veil. Authorities crushed the uprising with brute force that human-rights organizations said killed hundreds. While protests over the worsening economic picture remain limited, the regime appears more vulnerable to unrest now.

Iran's leadership "is probably experiencing the most profound challenges of its own making" in years, said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House in London. That could also push Tehran to negotiate a compromise with the West as it seeks a way out of the crisis, she added.

Specter of social unrest