The 2027 Census requires careful planning to get outcomes right

Keep India's next headcount transparent. It needs a consensual questionnaire and clear methodology of caste enumeration

- P.C. MOHANAN & AMITABH KUNDU are, respectively, former acting chairperson of the National Statistical Commission, and senior advisor at Development Alternatives.

India's forthcoming Census with 1 March 2027 as its point of reference can put to rest many data controversies we have had recently. The quantification of public-scheme beneficiaries, projection of achievements and allocation of resources are currently based on population projections and estimates of their distribution across different geographical areas and social groups. The projected total population figures from different national and international organizations differ so substantially that they can turn any development narrative upside down. The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council had raised the issue that using India's urban population share derived from the National Sample Survey (used in the absence of Census data) tends to underplay national achievements. This is because development indicators for urban areas, which get a lower population weight even though urbanization must have increased, are generally higher than those for rural areas. The more progress India makes, the greater the under-estimation.

Unfortunately, a projection of India's urban population by an expert group under the ministry of health did not help, since it was based on the urban growth figure of the period 2001 to 2011, while the subsequent trend rate is likely to have risen. Also, the claimed achievements under national schemes such as the Jal Jeevan Mission, Swachh Bharat and others are based on administrative reporting and are thus expected to be high. New Census data on housing amenities can validate some of these claims, as questions on a household's source of drinking water or use of toilets are generally asked as part of the questionnaire.