Russia, Ukraine ratchet up war while trying to show they want peace

Ukraine's weekend attacks against military airfields deep inside Russia signal the long-stalemated war is entering a perilous phase, with both sides seemingly intent on escalation and prospects for a U.S.-brokered peace deal receding.

- Alexander Ward, Michael R. Gordon & Matthew Luxmoore

Only a day after the Ukrainian drones dealt a blow to Russia's bomber fleet in a brazen attack that stunned Moscow, the two sides met for a second round of talks in Istanbul after President Trump declared again that he wanted a quick deal to halt the fighting.

The meeting lasted barely an hour, producing an agreement to exchange prisoners but nothing more. Instead of cooling off, the grinding 40-month war seems to be growing even hotter—with minimal pushback from Trump.

Russia has struck Ukraine with an avalanche of missiles and drones in recent weeks, hitting a range of civilian targets and killing or wounding many civilians. It is likely to intensify those attacks in response to Kyiv's drone strikes ahead of a summer offensive now in the planning stages.

Ukraine had relied on the production of strike drones capable of flying hundreds of miles into Russia, hoping to offset its disadvantage on the ground and make up for U.S. aid that is expected to diminish in the months ahead with air-strikes that produce outsize effects.

Ukraine says that its Sunday attack damaged or destroyed more than 40 aircraft, while experts have documented about 14 strikes on Russian bombers—a huge setback for Moscow.

One question is whether the spiraling attacks will spur the administration to engage more deeply in the peace process—or walk away, as U.S. officials have repeatedly threatened to do. Trump last week appeared to give Russian President Vladimir Putin a two-week deadline, threatening to "respond a little bit differently" if he concluded the Russian leader was stringing him along.

Trump's vow to walk away from the war is unrealistic, some analysts said. "Walking away extends the fighting," said William Taylor, the former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine during the George W. Bush and first Trump administrations. "It would be an admission of failure."