Critical Minerals Supply Risks Mount Amid China's Grip, Export Curbs

After US imposed new tariffs on China last month, Beijing tightened rare earth exports, worrying manufacturers

- Giulia Petroni

Critical mineral supplies are increasingly concentrated in a handful of countries, with the threat of disruption growing as export bans multiply and diversification efforts face stiff hurdles, according to a report on the sector by the International Energy Agency.

The grip of key players on the market has tightened in recent years. China is the leading refiner for 19 of the 20 strategic minerals tracked by the IEA and accounted for up to roughly 80% of global supply growth of copper and lithium between 2020 and 2024.

“If countries want to catch up with China, they have to make sure government policies are there to support new entrants, both in terms of mining and refining,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA.

However, capital costs in alternative regions are typically about 50% higher than those for established producers, while a surge in export restrictions—now affecting more than half of the 20 critical minerals—is adding pressure to supplies.

The uncertainty over tariffs and the broader economic outlook is creating a challenging environment for investors, potentially deterring some critical mineral supply projects, including for minerals like copper and lithium which face medium-term supply deficits,” the agency said.