Eastward but Unequal

As Asia-Pacific economies deepen their trade web through RCEP, India’s absence grows costlier — widening deficits, missed opportunities, and a faltering ‘Look East’ vision

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RCEP nations renewed their pledge to strengthen regional supply chains and deepen integration at the Kuala Lumpur meeting

On October 27, 2025, Malaysia hosted the 5t* Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Summit in Kuala Lumpur, together with Leaders of the RCEP Participating Countries, namely ASEAN Member States, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea. This was the first Leaders’ meeting since the RCEP Agreement entered into force in 2022, and the first since the signing Ceremony at the 4" RCEP Summit on November 15, 2020. RCEP, the world’s largest free trade bloc, brings together 15 Asia-Pacific nations, encompassing about 30 percent of global gross domestic product — equivalent to USD 25.9 trillion anda third of the world population. The pact aims to deepen regional economic integration, streamline trade, and strengthen supply chains. Recently, four developing nationsHong Kong, Sri Lanka, Chile, and Bangladesh have submitted their formal application for RCEP membership.

The Sth RCEP summit received added attention due to the ongoing tariff war initiated by US President Donald Trump.

Based on the AGI RCEP Trade Tracker, a report prepared by the Asian Global Institute has compiled a comparative analysis of trade performance from QI 2020 to Q3 2024, ensuring a consistent comparison of trade trends across years. The analysis reveals several critical trends shaping RCEP’s trade dynamics:

within RCEP, with total exports to its regional partners reaching USD 2.76 billion in Q1-Q3 2024. The 3.6 per cent increase in 2024 marks a cautious recovery after an 8.5 per cent increase in the year before. While the downturn in 2023 reflected global economic uncertainties and shifting supply chains, the modest rebound in 2024 suggests that China's trade with RCEP is stabilising.