Us today; you tomorrow

WW2 is conventionally dated to September 1939 when Germany invaded Poland, but its origins can reasonably be traced back to 1935 when Fascist Italy invaded Ethiopia

- Seifudein Adem

The war in Ukraine continues to reshape Europe's security landscape, testing international resolve and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. Photo Ukraine Ministry of Defence

(Photo Ukraine Ministry of Defence)

A useful parallel can be drawn in contemporary international relations between 1935, when former Italian Prime Minister Benito Mussolini invaded Abyssinia (Ethiopia) and 2022, when Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine.

The comparison suggests that the war in Ukraine has broader systemic implications and that a direct confrontation between Russia and the West is more likely than a comparable war between China and the West in the near future.

The Second World War is conventionally dated to September 1939, when Germany invaded Poland. But its origins can reasonably be traced back to 1935, when Fascist Italy invaded Ethiopia. That episode exposed the weakness of the League of Nations and the limits of interwar collective security. In hindsight, Ethiopia was a warning that went unheeded.

Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 may serve a similar role. The danger today lies not only in the act of aggression itself but in the international system's limited capacity to deter or reverse it. Large wars often result from accumulated failures of response.

Europe's reaction to Italy's invasion of Ethiopia was hesitant. Sanctions were imposed on Italy but were limited and inconsistently enforced. No military assistance was provided to Ethiopia and Italy's use of chemical weapons produced little more than condemnation. Mussolini concluded that the costs of aggression were manageable.