U.S. tariff refunds could quietly supercharge corporations’ earnings

The sweeping tariffs underpinning President Trump’s economic policy may have gone from a headwind to a tailwind for the stock market, with the Supreme Court’s decision to unwind them setting the stage for a potential earnings boon for some companies.

- By JOEL LEON

Analysts were forced to rip up their models and downgrade recommendations after Trump unveiled the “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025. Those duties were struck down in February, when the Supreme Court ruled the president lacked authority to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose the levies.

On the hook for an estimated $166 billion, the Trump administration began processing refunds in April. The first swath of repayments took place in May, with $22 billion being refunded, according to the Treasury Department. That amount was roughly equal to the tariffs taken during that month.

Those refunds and others on the way are a tailwind for certain stocks that “nobody is talking about” as the second half of the year gets underway, according to Ohsung Kwon, an equity analyst at Wells Fargo & Co.

“I don’t think anybody really picked up on it yet, and people were skeptical, including ourselves,” Kwon said of the positive effect of the refunds. “We were skeptical that those checks will actually get issued, but it’s actually happening.”

Around 40 companies — including Apple Inc., Caterpillar Inc., Dollar Tree Inc. and Tesla Inc. — discussed refunds in the first quarter, Kwon said in a note published last week. However, only eight recognized them as a benefit, including Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and Under Armour Inc.