Budgam Turns the Tide

A long-loyal constituency turned away from the National Conference, driven by anger, family politics and a sense of being left unheard.

- Dr Raja Muzaffar Bhat

I grew up hearing that Budgam never strayed far from the National Conference.

The seat carried the memory of old leaders, family ties and a sense of loyalty that moved from one generation to the next.

People often spoke of the place as if it had a natural pull toward the party. Ten out of eleven elections since 1962 had gone its way. The only exception came in 1972 when a Congress candidate won for a single term.

That history shaped the way many looked at this year’s byelection. The expectation felt fixed. A surprise seemed unlikely.

The result forced a pause.

The PDP candidate, Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, defeated NC’s Aga Syed Mehmood by more than five thousand votes.

The margin shocked even those who believed Budgam was restless.

A fall from 36,000 votes polled by Omar Abdullah in the last assembly election to this loss within a year pointed to deeper cracks. The turnout told its own story as well. Half the electorate voted this time, far lower than the previous assembly poll.

Omar Abdullah had created the first shift. He contested both Budgam and Ganderbal last year and won both. His victory in Budgam was larger, but he chose to keep Ganderbal.

People in Budgam felt they had been left behind. Many told me they believed Omar Abdullah had promised to stay in the constituency that gave him more votes. He announced his decision through the Pro-tem Speaker in the assembly, and the news travelled fast.

These conversations grew louder after months passed with no MLA on the ground. The government did not hold a by-election for a full year. Budgam stayed without a voice in the house through a period that saw many local concerns grow sharper.

Ganderbal held its own meaning for Omar Abdullah. His grandfather Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah won here after years of detention. His father, Dr Farooq Abdullah, carried the seat through 1983, 1987 and 1996. Omar himself reclaimed it in 2008.