NDA’s seat sharing deal puts Nitish’s grip to test?

On October 12, when the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) announced its seat-sharing formula for the Bihar elections, both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (United) were allotted 101 assembly constituencies (ACS) each, with 29 going to Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party-Ramvilas (LJP-R) and six each to Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM).

- Arun Kumar

The JD(U) and BJP contesting an equal number of ACs is a first in the four assembly elections the two parties have contested together in the state. More than anything it was seen as a weakening of Nitish Kumar's bargaining position within the NDA, though he remains the chief ministerial candidate of the NDA in the state.

To be sure, Nitish Kumar becoming the chief minister after the 2020 elections in itself was more than awkward, as the JD(U) had just 43 MLAs in the assembly compared to the BJP’s 74 despite the former contesting 115 ACs while the latter contested only 110.

One of the biggest reasons behind the JD(U)’s poor showing was the LJP putting up 113 candidates against it despite being a part of the NDA at the centre. It only put up six candidates against the BJP. There were 64 ACs where the LJP polled more votes than the victory margin in 2020 and the JD(U) lost in 27 of them.

These historical facts, the seat sharing formula in the 2025 elections, more than one anecdotal account of growing dissension within the JD(U)’s rank and file, and the JD(U) not releasing any of its candidates’ names until Tuesday evening has raised serious questions about how united the JD(U) is in these elections.