FMCG sector stares at bleak year ahead

NielsenIQ predicts moderation in sales after two strong years led by higher prices

- Suneera Tandon

NEW DELHI: After two years of robust growth led by higher prices, India's packaged consumer goods industry may finally catch its breath in 2024, at a time clouds are gathering over the consumption sector.

Makers of soaps to shampoos and biscuits to beverages may grow at 4.5-6.5% in value terms this year, market researcher NielsenIQ (NIQ) said, sharply lower than 8.4% in 2022 and 9.3% in 2023. Nielsen, which follows a calendar year, did not share its outlook on volumes growth.

In the December quarter, the FMCG industry reported a 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in value terms, driven by a 6.4% rise in volume. However, both volume and value growth fell sequentially during the quarter.

The trend was seen in both urban and rural markets, where volumes grew y-o-y but dipped sequentially.

"There is a definite slowdown," said Krishnarao Buddha, senior category head, marketing at Parle Products. "Both rural and urban markets have slowed down. Errant monsoon in select geographies due to the El Niño has impacted the slowdown in consumption. There is also a normalizing effect post-covid," Buddha said.