Elevated levels of pollution will hit long-term growth

Budget season had us Indians talking economics – news and social media were awash with discussions on deficits, market indicators, taxes, and subsidies. With inflation for certain food items skyrocketing and the rupee rapidly losing value against the United States (US) dollar, there was, rightly, a lot of soul-searching concerning these matters.

- Kaushik Basu

However, there is a major concern that does not make headlines as being a threat to the economy but can single-handedly bring an end to India's growth. I am referring to air pollution, largely over Delhi, but in considerable measure, over the entire stretch from Punjab to Assam.

A common worldwide standard is to treat an AQI of less than 50 as representing "good air". By this criterion, Delhi's situation is appalling. In 2024, Delhi did not have a single "good air" day. This had not happened in the previous six years. On December 16, Delhi's air quality nosedived to hazardous levels, so much so that the authorities, notably the Commission of Air Quality Management, imposed Stage IV restrictions under the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP), which requires the closure of schools and halt to construction activities, for Delhi and its adjoining areas.

The damage this kind of pollution is causing to health is well-documented. Many Indians suffer from various respiratory illnesses solely because of air pollution. A study in The Lancet (2019) analysed data from across states and showed that 12.5% of all deaths in the country in 2017 were caused by air pollution. A large part of this is because of particulate matter pollution. According to Chicago University research, this level of pollution erases 7.8 years from the average life expectancy.