An India-China tango is unlikely at present

There are legitimate questions about the assessment that there are far more convergences than differences between the two countries

- Ashok K Kantha

Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi first visit to China after seven years and his meeting with President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit have generated much excitement and yielded modest gains in the ongoing process of rebuilding bilateral relations that had slid post Galwan. It also highlights the challenges in navigating this complex relationship amid an exceptionally uncertain global landscape that is to India’s disadvantage.

A revealing contrast lies in how each side is framing external pressures: Modi emphasised that bilateral ties “should not be seen through a third country lens” while Xi warned against “external interference”. Earlier, during foreign minister Wang Yi's visit to New Delhi, Chinese readouts claimed that India had joined China in opposing “unilateral bullying”, a barely disguised reference to the US.

This divergence is not semantic—it reflects differing strategic objectives. India, even while confronted with exorbitant tariffs, President Donald Trump’s tantrums, and other negative signals from Washington, seeks to preserve its strategic partnership with the US. China, facing containment pressures and sensing India’s vulnerability, would like to project a common stance against the US. Both seek greater manoeuvrability, but structural problems in ties do not offer space for strategic realignment. The answer to India’s current predicament visa-vis the US does not lie in revising its assessment of China as its primary strategic challenge, unless facts suggest otherwise.